The IEA outlined how annual solar power additions have the potential to nearly triple from current levels by 2030, setting new deployment records every year after 2022.
The IEA pointed out a significant cost decline over the past decade for this technology, with Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, stating: “If governments and investors step up clean energy efforts in line with our Sustainable Development Scenario, the growth of both solar and wind power will be even more spectacular - and highly encouraging for overcoming the world's climate challenge.”
The Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) is one of four scenarios created by the IEA to examine different recovery rates from COVID-19 and the pathways the energy sector could take in the coming years, with a particular focus on the next decade.
However, while solar power growth is most prominent in the SDS and Net Zero by 2050 scenarios - the two most ambitious scenarios - it is also seen in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), in which solar shows an annual generation output of 4,813TWh in 2040. This is higher than the combined annual output of 4,019TWh for offshore and onshore wind. Solar power also outperforms other technologies in the SDS scenario, with a projected generation output of 8,135TWh per year.
The IEA stated that storage is also playing an “increasingly important role” in ensuring the flexible operation of power systems, with India becoming the largest market for utility-scale battery storage.
However, there are challenges to facilitating these levels of renewable generation. The IEA warns that the grid could become the "weak link" in the power industry, with many countries finding a gap between the revenue available to grid operators and the spending needed to build the smart, digital, and flexible networks that would enable a net-zero system.
There will be significant demand for new transmission and distribution lines over the next ten years, with an expansion of more than 80% compared to the previous decade under the STEPS scenario.
Global demand forecasts have also declined, with energy demand pre-COVID-19 projected to grow by 12% from 2019 to 2030. Growth over this period is now 9% under the STEPS scenario and only 4% under the Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS).
According to the report by IEA's WES
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